The Improbability of Unity Between Eritrean Forces and the TPLF

Historical Animosity: A Barrier to Unity

The long-standing historical animosity between Eritrean forces and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) significantly hampers any prospects of unity. The roots of this animosity can be traced back to the complex political and territorial disputes that have persisted for decades. Both entities have had divergent aspirations, contributing to a deep-seated mistrust that became particularly evident during the recent conflict in Tigray.

Divergent Strategic Interests

Divergent strategic interests further diminish the likelihood of unity between Eritrean forces and the TPLF. Eritrea, under President Isaias Afwerki, has maintained a staunch anti-TPLF stance, viewing the group as a significant threat to Eritrean sovereignty and stability. On the other hand, the TPLF is focused on rebuilding Tigray after the war, which necessitates resources and attention that preclude alignment with Eritrean objectives. These conflicting priorities mean that even minor cooperation is fraught with challenges.

Impact of the Recent Conflict in Tigray

The recent conflict in Tigray has deepened the divide between Eritrean forces and the TPLF. Eritrean troops fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces against the TPLF, exacerbating the hostility between these factions. The violence and devastation wrought during this conflict have left scars that are unlikely to heal quickly, reinforcing the mutual distrust that inhibits any form of unity.

The Pretoria Peace Agreement: A Ray of Hope?

While the Pretoria Peace Agreement has brought some level of de-escalation in the region, it has not eradicated the underlying tensions between Eritrean forces and the TPLF. This agreement may pave the way for reduced hostilities, yet it does not address the fundamental issues that divide these groups. Thus, while the peace agreement is a welcome development, it is insufficient to foster true unity.

Looking Ahead: The Unlikely Path to Unity

In conclusion, the probability of unity between Eritrean forces and the TPLF remains low due to historical animosity, divergent strategic interests, and the lingering effects of the recent conflict in Tigray. Although external pressures or significant regional shifts might compel some level of cooperation in the distant future, sustainable unity is not foreseeable in the near term. As both entities continue to navigate their distinct agendas, the mutual distrust is likely to persist, underscoring the improbability of a unified front.